This year is election year in Indonesia. That is, elections for the national parliament (DPR), Provincial parliaments (DPRD I), city/regency parliaments (DPRD II), Board of Regional Representatives (DPD) as well as for the presidency and vice-presidency. Since the introduction of direct elections in 2004 which has its legal based on the law No. 32 Year 2004 on the direct election for governors, mayors and bupatis, there is now an election somewhere in Indonesia every couple of days. Election campaign posters have become a permanent feature of the streets in Indonesia.
For this year’s national elections, 38 parties and 6 local parties in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam have been admitted by the National Election Commission KPU. Most of the major parties have long traditions and are related to large societal or religious groups. But, no less than 22 of the parties are new and are not currently represented in the DPR.
In recent years, a number of new parties have been established around individuals. The People's Conscience Party (Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat-Hanura)) is the creation of former army general Wiranto. He remained largely out of the limelight following the public criticism over the army’s failure to prevent the 1998 riots and allegations from abroad over his involvement in large-scale human rights violations during the secession of East Timor in 1999. With these events now largely faded from the memories of a large part of the electorate, he is entering the political arena citing the reduction of poverty as his main political objective. Another new party is Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerakan Indonesia Raya-Gerindra). It was formed by a number of former army generals. Former Commander of the Kopassus Special Forces Prabowo Subianto is the most prominent political figure of Gerindra.
Also new is the Partai Republika Nusantara (RepublikaN). The most prominent candidates for this party are Sultan Hamengkubuwono X of Yogyakarta , and general Sutiyoso, former governor of Jakarta.
Never Mind the Gap
As political standpoints of parties are not very specific, creating coalitions is more a matter of personalities than of bridging ideological differences. The current government is supported by a coalition of the nationalist PD and Golkar and the rather strict religious parties PPP, PKS and PBB. Ideological differences with PDI-P, and the moderate PKB and PAN are much smaller, but the strained personal relations of Megawati with SBY and Kalla made co-operation impossible.
Current composition of the DPR
As political standpoints of parties are not very specific, creating coalitions is more a matter of personalities than of bridging ideological differences. The current government is supported by a coalition of the nationalist PD and Golkar and the rather strict religious parties PPP, PKS and PBB. Ideological differences with PDI-P, and the moderate PKB and PAN are much smaller, but the strained personal relations of Megawati with SBY and Kalla made co-operation impossible.
Current composition of the DPR
The fact that the president’s PD is only a small faction in the DPR has made life difficult for his government, especially in the early years of the current government’s term. Relations between the parties in the DPR and the government have become somewhat more pragmatic in recent years. Parliament has however, not appeared to be very keen to contributing to the government’s success, resulting in a large pile of laws still awaiting parliamentary approval.
The Elections for the DPR
Could things be different after his year’s elections?
A survey by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in December into the voters’ intentions for the parliamentary round of elections, gave SBY’s Democratic Party the lead, with 24.3 % of the respondents, followed at a distance by the PDI-P with 17.3% and the Golkar Party with 15.9%.
If this would indeed be the result of the parliamentary elections, that would mean that Golkar would lose a third of its seats in Parliament and become only the third largest party. The Democratic Party would more than double its number of seats and become the largest faction.
‘Golkar has played an important role in the Parliament in supporting the government, but clearly it cannot effectively claim the success that the Democratic Party can’, says Umar Juoro, Center for Information and Development Economic Studies (CIDES).
Another important development could be the rise of the Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS). This party has been doing very well in provincial elections on an image of clean government and religious values. PKS has won the parliamentary elections in DKI Jakarta and the elections for governor in West Java, mostly at the expense of Golkar. According to PA Asia’s Hidayat, PKS is a party that is founded almost solely on ideology. It is basically an Islamist party, modeled upon the controversial Moslem Brotherhood movement in Egypt, despite dropping its goal to impose sharia once in power. Yet they are struggling on the national arena, though it has had more success in some local elections, perhaps helped by a degree of protest voting toward the incumbent.
The more traditional religious parties, such as PPP and PKB have difficulties in attracting new voters. Their number of seats will probably not change very much. PAN, with its intellectual image, is struggling to appeal to a large number of voters.
After the First Round
Parties or coalitions of parties that have got at least 20% of the seats in the DPR, or at least 25% of the popular votes, may propose a candidate for the presidency and the vice-presidency.
The outcome of the first round of elections is likely to be that three political parties would be able to nominate candidates, or to lead a coalition that will nominate candidates. PD, PDI-P and Golkar. PD’s candidate will or course be SBY. But he will need the support of Golkar, because a coalition with PDI-P is out of the question. Getting all the religious parties lined up behind one vice-presidential candidate will also not be easy, although PKS’s Hidayat Nur Wahid would be a possibility. PD and PKS are already coalition partners.
Parties or coalitions of parties that have got at least 20% of the seats in the DPR, or at least 25% of the popular votes, may propose a candidate for the presidency and the vice-presidency.
The outcome of the first round of elections is likely to be that three political parties would be able to nominate candidates, or to lead a coalition that will nominate candidates. PD, PDI-P and Golkar. PD’s candidate will or course be SBY. But he will need the support of Golkar, because a coalition with PDI-P is out of the question. Getting all the religious parties lined up behind one vice-presidential candidate will also not be easy, although PKS’s Hidayat Nur Wahid would be a possibility. PD and PKS are already coalition partners.
Similarly, PDI-P would be best off with Golkar as its partner, if Kalla and Megawati can mend their relations or indeed, if Golkar would still opt to nominate the popular Sultan Sri Hamengku Buwono X. Megawati’s attempt in the last elections to get the religious parties behind her, failed so she probably will be reluctant to try this again.
Golkar could therefore actually be in a position to choose which presidential candidate to team up with : SBY or Megawati. First though, it must make sure it will stay ahead of the PKS, and that is still not a foregone conclusion.
Religion
The traditional large religious parties like PPP and PKB have seen their popularity decline somewhat. It seems to be the reflection of an electorate that is increasingly independent and not just following the family or even community tradition. Religion however remains a very important source of values for almost all Indonesians, and therefore no party would like to be seen as non-religious. The passage of the Anti-Pornography Bill in 2008 is widely seen as an attempt of some of the large non-religious parties such as PD and Golkar, to lure voters away from the large religious parties. The fear of popular religious sentiments has been an important factor in the political decision-making, or probably more accurately in the political non-decision-making. An example is the reluctance of politicians to respond to incidents of sometimes violent religious intolerance and the introduction of Islamic law (sharia) in some regions. The question however is, whether this fear of popular religious sentiments is justified because surveys show that the vast majority of the people do not support religiously inspired violence.
Hidayat agrees and sees a generally healthy trend in recent national elections and local elections. ‘Religion, to a large degree, overt ideology, ethnicity and the like all do not play a major role’, he says. ‘One can extend the logic to the issue of funding, in other words: money is not everything’. This explained Yudhoyono’s victory in 2004 against the incumbent Megawati and Wiranto who had the backing of Golkar. My thinking is personality, a perceived sense of competence and decency, is indeed very important. I recall that the calm Yudhoyono’s popularity shot up through the roof in 2004 right after being publicly derided by then First Husband Taufik Kiemas. I also recall that the outspoken, sometimes fiery and polemic Amien Rais, the hero of the reformasi in 1998, lost out big time in the 1999 election. So fiery rhetoric or smart and wonkish talk does not seem to be very important either. What I personally would like to see is more attention toward track-records and the like. Some of the campaign ads have begun to bring up these. For this time around, all major candidates have track-records as well as skeletons in the closets. For now, the economy is yet to be a major issue, but it may change given the fluctuation in the Rupiah, continued drop in exports and perhaps rise in joblessness.
What do they want?
So voters are getting more critical about what the parties will do to solve the people’s problems. Most parties have not yet gone through an extensive process of writing policies and viewpoints, but in recent weeks, some statements have been made in public. Golkar, PDI-P, PKB and Gerindra explicitly refer to the goals of the 1945 Constitution. Golkar and PDI-P mention the Pancasila, the state ideology that was strongly promoted under the Suharto government. PKS mentions the importance of the Islamic community and unity. PAN and PD mention humanism and, together with Golkar, they also mention diversity as an important value.
PDI-P has announced their three major programmes, namely food security by providing cheap nine primary foods (Sembilan bahan pokok-sembako), work opportunity and increasing citizen’s prosperity.. The party has announced that the legislator candidates who are elected will be punished or will be given a sanction if they fail to reach this target. PDI-P has stated as its key programme points that it wants to strengthen national defense and national authority, self-reliance in energy, food and finance, and improvement of education, technology, health and family’s prosperity, national business and rural areas. It indicates a preference for a strong central government and a nationalist, possibly somewhat protectionist, policy.
PKS puts the focus on improving young people’s skills and economic development, in order to reduce unemployment. PKS mentions the eradication of corruption as a key factor for a better investment climate.
One of the most articulate policies comes from the PD. Agriculture and fisheries are an important priority in the economic policy of the PD. The prosperity of farmers should be increased, but also investment by both domestic and foreign investors should be encouraged. The use of land should be evaluated from time to time. Fish breeding should be expanded nationalized and the value added should be increased, while while illegal fishing should be eradicated. To stimulate the development of the mining sector, maintaining political stability and security, harmonization of regulation and legal certainty, and clean government as well as creating an effective and efficient bureaucracy are important. However, the effort to increase mining industry should also consider environmental stability. Regarding Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs), the PD sees that Indonesia still has a problem with low productivity and quality of human resources while access to funding and productive resources remain limited.
PKB wants to develop a ‘citizens’ economy of fairness and prosperity’. It emphasizes the importance of a civilized law state, citizen’s needs, human rights and social justice. It also wants to create a national, affordable and continuous education system with the citizen as the main and only focus. For a party related to one of the country’s largest religious groups, the views of the PKB are always pragmatic and progressive.
Gerindra wants to strengthen the people’s economy, especially in agriculture. Indonesia should become an Asian Tiger again, but the role of the free market should be reduced.
PPP sees that the management of the macro economic is not in balance with the management of the of micro economy. What they want is the government taking into account the development of micro economic sector by providing a larger state budget for this sector. The lack of concern from the government can be seen from the very small portion of credit given for cooperation (koperasi), or SMEs compared to the large scale business. A clear policy for the development of the micro economy should be issued.
PAN wants more focus on SMEs and micro economic development. The economic development should also concern equality within regions, working opportunity as well citizen’s prosperity. The exploitation of natural resources should also focus on its conservation instead of economic motives. War against corruption is a must and legal enforcement for its eradication should be stricter.
The visions and stated objectives of the political parties are rather broad. There is little that would make co-operation with other parties impossible on ideological grounds. Yet, carefully reading and analyzing their policy statements gives some indication on what the political leaders are really thinking of. Policy assurance and application by the political parties would gradually become more important, as voters increasingly demand solutions and performance instead of rhetoric only.
This time around though, personalities will still play the most important role in determining which party to govern. Once the numbers of the April elections are in, the counting begins.
Elmar Bouma And Muqthi Ali INA Magazine
